200X: Year Of The Linux Argument

In no less than two days I've read a flurry of articles pooh-poohing the Linux desktop as a veritable delusion and a fairy story -- something to tell young GTK+ coders before you tuck them in at night. It isn't the year of the Linux desktop; it's the year of the Linux catfight.

One such declaration comes courtesy of, oddly enough, Matt Asay -- open source blogger for CNET. In "Yet again, desktop Linux won't claim a year", he insists that it's the cloud, the Big PC In The Net, that will be our next "desktop":


... we already have the Linux desktop: it runs in the cloud and is called Facebook, Google (NSDQ: GOOG), etc. There is little need to have Linux running on my local laptop when the real game is in the cloud now.

It's time to move on. Next year won't be the year of the Linux desktop anymore than 2010 will be. Why? Because we don't need a Linux desktop. We need to accelerate efforts toward the cloud, which is open source's game to lose.


All of this is true, but only up to a point. The cloud -- or Cloud, I guess we should call it -- is only of importance to people who need such a thing, and at the moment they need it. I'm not particularly interested in a cloud when I'm trying to work in a six-layer image in Photoshop; I want a good, responsive GUI and a logically-designed workflow. I am interested in the cloud the minute I publish my finished work to Flickr, though. Both experiences demand radically different kinds of engineering, and if Linux can give me good experiences in both camps, bully for Linux.

Alex Zaharov-Reutt's article "2009: Year of the Linux Delusion" for iTWire is even more venomous. The title alone tells it, but he goes on to slam the whole concept of Linux-powered netbooks as productivity devices:

... when you want to get some real work done, you’ll certainly be turning to a real desktop, notebook, or netbook, not one of these "web" devices with little processing power that relies on a non-flaky Internet connection.

He leaves it to us to define what "real work" is (as opposed to, what, all that "fake" work going around?). From what I've seen, there's more than enough "real work" that can be accomplished through one's e-mail clients or word processors, two applications that don't exactly require devastating amounts of CPU or graphics power to be usable.

Each of these two arguments seems to only encompass half the issue. There is as much a need for a robust local desktop as there is a slimmed-down, nothing-extra desktop, as there is for a desktop-in-the-cloud. I have found myself using any one of these things, or some combination of them, at any given time. To assume that any one of these will rise to the top and lord it over the rest is myopia.

I don't believe for a second that Microsoft (NSDQ: MSFT) or Windows will go completely off the map, whether due to their own incompetence or because of open source making something as good or better for less. I do believe that Windows will no longer be the de facto choice, that having competition from everything from Linux to the Mac to the Cloud will be and is exactly the kick in the rump it needs. And vice versa, too -- that future editions of Windows ought to have the same effect on those concerned with desktop experiences.

Here's another way to put it: 2009 will be the year of choice on the desktop. Better?

Two Predictions 2009

As 2008 comes to a close, I'd like to share three predictions for the technology space in 2009. The predictions are: more utility-based web applications will launch and mobile usage will grow but content won't be monetized.

Utility-based Web Applications Will Be Visible
I've been reviewing utilities for a long time now and while they aren't as "sexy" as Twitter or Facebook, these utilities can provide more usefulness than any social network. Many of these utility applications generate real revenue and have more opportunities for revenue than just running ads. Some examples of utility web applications include:

• GoMobo - provides a way to order food online from local fast food establishments and have the food ready when you arrive so you don't have to wait on line
• ZocDoc - check out doctors, read reviews from other patients, make appointments
• 37Signals - offers a variety of web-based productivity applications
• BeenVerified - run background checks on potential employees along with the ability to use verified credentials across the Web
• Zoho - offers a suite of online office applications

Most early adopter and Web 2.0 review sites shy away from reviews of utilities because they typically don't drive massive traffic and it's harder to push the reviews to social news sites including Digg or Slashdot. I do believe we will see these review sites starting to cover more utilities in 2009 because of the multi-tiered revenue approach that many of the utilities exhibit. This visibility will help to push developers into creating more utilities.

Mobile Usage
As more people move to "smart" mobile devices, mobile usage will continue to grow and will rapidly accelerate in 2009. Developers will continue to build applications for the iTunes App Store. These applications will provide a stream of mobile monetization for both the developers and for Apple. As for mobile content, usage will also have a rapid growth curve. Sadly though, monetizing content will be more difficult than monetizing mobile applications.

Most smart mobile devices have great Web browsers but in my tests, users only engage with the content and not the ads (even less than in a traditional Web environment). The new Skyfire mobile browser can actually resize a page so you can scroll through the content without any of the sidebars where the advertising typically is placed. Traditional display andGoogle (NSDQ: GOOG) AdWords ads just won't work on a mobile device. The first company to figure out how to actually monetize mobile content will do very well in the market.

Hands-Free Calling No Safer For Drivers

American drivers who believe talking on a hands-free cell phone while driving is safer than talking on a handheld handset are fooling themselves, according to the American Automobile Association.

AAA said this week that studies of crash-involved cell phone records show that the use of cell phones makes drivers four times as likely to be in a crash.

"Evidence shows that using a hands-free phone while driving impairs your reaction time to critical events and increases your crash risk about the same as if you were using a hand-held phone," said AAA Foundation CEO Peter Kissinger in a statement. "Too many Americans are driving with the false sense of security that hands-free devices are somehow safer, which would be a deadly mistake."

AAA Foundation surveys also have found that drivers generally look down on cell phone use while driving, but then in a "do as I say, not as I do" example, they talk on cell phones when they drive. Even worse, nearly half of drivers between 18 and 24 said they occasionally text while driving. In one AAA survey, 60% said they use handheld phones when driving, while 34% use hands-free handsets.

AAA surveys produced interesting data on teen drivers, the group often singled out as being most likely to talk and text on cell phones. AAA noted that 18 states and the District of Columbia ban all cell phone use while driving by teens.

"Given the trouble new teen drivers have managing distractions and making safe driving decisions, AAA encourages all states to enact laws banning teens from using any wireless device while driving," said Kathleen Marvaso, AAA's VP of public affairs, in a statement. "Texting while driving poses even greater safety concerns." AAA has proposed that texting be banned for all drivers.

In reviewing regulation of cell phone use while driving, AAA said no U.S. state or jurisdiction currently bans all cell phone use in moving vehicles, but there is a rising trend toward introducing legislation to stem cell phone use considered to be dangerous. Where states have failed to act on the issue, local jurisdictions have sometimes stepped in, banning hand-held use of cell phones. Included in this group are Chicago; Santa Fe, N.M.; Detroit; and Brooklyn, N.Y


Resource: http://www.techweb.com

AMD Faces 25% Revenue Drop Due To Weak Demand

Advanced Micro Devices on Thursday said revenue in the fourth quarter would be 25% lower than the previous quarter, because of weaker-than-expected demand for its products.

AMD's warning came about three weeks after rival Intel lowered its fourth-quarter earnings forecast. Both companies said they were experiencing lower-than-expected sales across all geographies and businesses. AMD said sales were particularly weak in the consumer market.

AMD said it expected revenue, excluding process technology license revenue, to be a quarter less than the $1.585 billion reported in the third quarter, when the company reported its eighth consecutive quarterly loss. The loss, however, was significantly narrower than the same quarter the year before, and the company said it reached its goal of operational profitability.

Nevertheless, chipmakers are struggling within an economic downturn that has taken a serious toll. The global semiconductor industry this year is projected to see its first revenue decline in seven years, brought on by lower spending on PCs and other electronic devices by consumers and businesses, according to iSuppli. Gartner also lowered its revenue projection for the industry, as well as the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics, an industry trade group.

AMD has taken steps to reduce expenses. The company has said it would cut its workforce by 3% and plans to spin off its manufacturing operations in a joint venture with Advanced Technology Investment Co., formed by the Abu Dhabi government. ATIC would have a 55.6% stake in the company, but AMD would have equal voting rights. The deal is expected to close in the beginning of 2009

Resource: http://www.techweb.com

Symbian's Move Toward Open Source Gathers Steam

The momentum to turn Symbian into an open source mobile operating system is strong, and developers can expect to see a preliminary version in the first half of 2009, said Lee Williams, nominated executive director of the Symbian Foundation.

Symbian is the dominant mobile operating system, with nearly 50% of the global market. But it has faced increased competition from entrenched players like Research In Motion, Microsoft's Windows Mobile, and relatively new players like Apple and the Google-backed Android platform. In June, Nokia announced plans to purchase the remaining stock in Symbian and spin it into a royalty-free operating system under the Eclipse Public License. The goal was to harness the innovation of the open source environment to increase market share, as well as to attract application developers.

The Symbian Foundation was created to steward that transition, and it includes industry heavyweights such as AT&T, Nokia, Samsung, Sony Ericsson, and T-Mobile. During a roundtable event at the Symbian Partner Event in San Francisco Thursday, executives from AT&T, Nokia, Symbian, and Visa discussed the progress and obstacles of moving to open source.

Williams said the foundation has hit or surpassed many of its internal milestones regarding operations and processes, and it will begin recruiting and hiring soon. Foundation members are still in the process of "code bashing" Symbian with Nokia's S60, DoCoMo's Mobile Oriented Applications Platform, and UIQ to create the new platform.

Symbian and S60 in particular have been optimized around the "scroll and select" input method. This makes devices like the Nokia E71 easy to use one-handed, but it has also led to a somewhat stagnant user interface, particularly in comparison to the iPhone 3G and even the Android-powered G1. Williams said the foundation has the opportunity to blend the functionality of the existing Symbian with advanced touch and sensor methods that could ultimately lead to a more usable and visually pleasing UI.

Applications and developers will be crucial to the success of the new Symbian, and a developer relations program is being set in place. One knock on Symbian has been that it's a powerful operating system, but developing for it can be costly and difficult. Williams said the foundation wants to ensure that developers of all kinds will be able to create content with programs they are familiar with such as Flash. He also praised how Apple and Google have made creating applications for their mobile platforms easy, particularly for small companies, hobbyists, and content providers.

While popular across the globe, Symbian devices have not been able to capture a large market in North America. The United States is behind many other advanced countries in smartphone adoption rates and 3G networks, but it remains one of the largest potential markets. One major factor in the paltry U.S. adoption rate of Symbian phones is the relatively weak carrier support. That could change as AT&T appears to be taking a large role in the foundation.

Roger Smith, director of next generation services for AT&T, said the mobile operator is looking to standardize on as few mobile platforms as possible over the next few years in order to avoid fragmentation. With its rich history in the mobile space, Symbian is a "credible candidate" to be one of the few operating systems that AT&T backs, Smith said.

"If done well and done right, this can be a game-changing event," Smith said of the open source Symbian.

Being involved with the mobile operating system potentially lets AT&T play a larger role in the ownership of the customer experience. For example, the iPhone 3G has been a big hit for AT&T, but users have virtually no contact with the carrier besides billing and customer service. Smith said a percentage of its customers may want the experience that the iPhone or BlackBerry provides, but there is a large chunk of its subscriber base that isn't being addressed.

"We're going to take more control over our destiny in the mobile operating space," Smith said.

resource: http://www.techweb.com

Opera Offers Sneak Peek At Next Browser

Opera Software on Thursday offered the first look at Opera 10, which the company is touting as much faster than previous generations.

The alpha version of the Web browser, available for download at the Opera site, gives people a sneak peek at the browser's Presto 2.2 rendering engine, which will be the foundation of all future Opera 10 products. The new engine delivers a 30% faster browsing experience as compared with Presto 2.1 introduced in Opera 9.5 in June, the company said.

Along with the new engine, Opera 10 has improved standards support and better technologies for building and viewing Web sites. Other new features include spell-checking as a person types and auto-updating to the latest versions as they become available.

"My favorite development in this release is the support for new Web technologies, which allows people to explore new ways of using the Internet," Johan Borg, VP of consumer engineering for Opera Software, said in a statement.

The Opera 10 alpha release follows last week's introduction of the latest version of Opera Mini, a mobile browser that the company claimed also is faster than previous generations. Opera also added to Mini 4.2 support for T-Mobile's Android-powered G1 phone, which ships with the "Chrome light" browser. G1 users would have to download Opera Mini from the Android Market.

Opera Mini is designed to provide fast access to the Internet no matter what device or network speed the user has, and it's available on handsets such as the Samsung Instinct, Windows Mobile smartphones, and BlackBerry devices. The Java ME-based browser works by rendering pages on a server and then sending them to the device, thus easing the connectivity demands of the phone. Opera said it has been able to improve speeds in the United States by 30% thanks to a new server park.

As of the end of November, the Opera browser was the fifth-most-used browser for accessing the Web, with a 0.71% market share, according to the Web metrics firm Net Applications. Microsoft Internet Explorer led the market, followed by Firefox, Safari, and Chrome.

Top 10 Apple Stories Of 2008

When I started working on this guide to the top 10 Apple stories of 2008, I thought that this was a relatively quiet year for Apple. After all, this wasn't a year for blockbuster product introductions like the iPod or iPhone. It was, I thought, a year of incremental changes.

By the time I was done with my research, I'd changed my mind. This was a huge year for Apple. While there was no single triumphant product introduction, the company moved forward briskly on all fronts. It accelerated the iPhone's revolution of the smartphone industry by upgrading hardware and software and introducing the App Store. It reversed its previously poor record on environmentalism. It continued to be financially successful in an economy where blue-chip companies are failing. And it bolstered its notebook and desktop computer line, struggled with false rumors about Steve Jobs's health, fought a company looking to make Mac clones, and struggled with its MobileMe service.

Apple Floats On Air

Steve Jobs kicked off the year with a bang, unveiling the "world's thinnest notebook," the MacBook Air, a notebook so slender that it fits into a manila envelope.

The $1,799 notebook, weighing in at just 3 pounds, includes 2 GB memory, Intel Core 2 Duo 1.6-GHz or 1.86 GHz processor, supports Bluetooth and Wi-Fi, and has a five-hour battery life. Storage is either a 120 GB hard disk drive, or 128 GB solid state drive.

But the most impressive specs are the measurements: three quarters of an inch at the hinge, tapering to a nearly razor-sharp 0.16 inches at the front, where it closes with a magnetic, rather than mechanical, latch.

InformationWeek reviewer Richard Hoffman said the machine is a "study in compromises," praising its size, weight, style, and overall portability. The processor is fast enough, but slower than other Macs; the battery is long-lived, but not user-removable, meaning you can't carry around an extra battery. Memory is good, but not expandable.

The Air helped drive strong Mac sales. It also drove competition: Toshiba introduced a 2.4-pound notebook in June that it said was the world's lightest, and Hewlett-Packard introduced the Vooodoo Envy 133.

The compact Air also drove accessory sales, such as this $55 case that resembles a manila envelope, but is made of leather.

For the fashionable business traveler, the MacBook Air is the must-have notebook.

resource: http://techweb.com