Tuesday, January 6, 2009

Macworld Expo Rumors, Predictions, Expectations

Leave it to Apple to steal headlines by doing nothing. The big talk leading up to Macworld Conference & Expo, which kicks off today in San Francisco, was all about Apple's abrupt announcement late last month that Steve Jobs will not deliver his traditional keynote address this year, and that Apple won't exhibit at the conference beginning in 2010.

The announcements set off a tidal wave of speculation and rumors. Many people wondered whether Jobs is pulling out because he's too sick to participate. Jobs survived serious cancer treatment in 2004, and since then there have been several waves of rumors about his failing health. Nobody, however, has presented a single scrap of evidence that Jobs is actually sick. It's all a bunch of gossip.

In the latest round of speculation, the gadget blog Gizmodo last week claimed to have an inside source who says Jobs's health is rapidly declining. Apple's stock price dropped more than three points within minutes of the report. CNBC columnist Jim Goldman said the report is unfounded, noting that if Apple is misrepresenting or withholding information about Jobs's health, "someone -- indeed a lot of people -- could be going to jail." The sharp drop in stock price is an indication of Apple investors being "skittish" and having "little conviction" in Apple, Goldman said.

Kara Swisher, writing on the Wall Street Journal blog All Things Digital, scolded the rumormongers in her grandmother's language, calling them "crepe-hangers." Crunchgear suggested Goldman and Gizmodo settle the dispute with a "slapfight."

But blogger Robert Scoble settled the question: "I'm in Palo Alto. Just had yogurt at shop that Steve Jobs eats at frequently. They said he was in a couple of days ago and is in great health," he wrote on FriendFeed on Tuesday.

Good investigative reporting there, Robert. But what flavor yogurt does Jobs like?

[Update: Jobs announced Monday, 1/5, that he lost weight throughout 2008 due to a hormonal imbalance. He said he is undergoing treatment, is staying on as CEO, and expect to regain his lost weight by spring. ]

Yet another wave of speculation surrounded the future of the conference. Macworld Expo is the big annual reunion for the Mac family, where the most committed users, and vendors large and small, get together to network, communicate, and make deals. Apple's big, sprawling booth and the traditional Jobs keynote are like the anchor stores at a mall. Can Macworld survive without Apple? If it does, it'll be a different show than it was before.

But business continues as usual for the Apple community. This time of year, that means speculation, leaks, and rumors about what the company is likely to announce at Macworld. Philip Schiller, Apple's senior VP of worldwide product marketing, will deliver the keynote in Jobs's place. Let's take a look at what he's likely to unveil.